May's End

NVDA earnings + Makeup earnings + SPY pivots & More!

Good Morning Substack,

As Wall Street prepares for a shortened trading week, it is important to remember the reasoning behind Monday’s stock market closure.

Thank you to all the men and women who have sacrificed their lives during service to our country to fight for our freedom. To active and past military personnel, thank you for all your sacrifices. You are all true heroes, and I am forever grateful for the service you provided our country.

Economic Calendar 5/27-5/30

• Tuesday, May 27

  • Durable goods orders

  • Durable goods minus transportation

  • Consumer confidence

  • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index

• Wednesday, May 28

  • FOMC Fed Minutes (from May meeting)

• Thursday, May 29

  • Initial Jobless Claims

  • GDP

  • Pending home sales

  • 5 Fed Speakers

• Friday, May 30

  • Personal income

  • Consumer Spending

  • PCE index / YoY

  • Core PCE / YoY

  • Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods

  • Advanced retail inventories

  • Advanced wholesale inventories

  • Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)

  • Consumer sentiment

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Earnings Calendar

This week’s most anticipated earnings are provided via eWhispers on X. Headlining this week is NVDA, who’s set to report earnings Wednesday after the market closes.

• Tuesday, May 27

  • BOX

  • PDD

  • AZD

• Wednesday, May 28

  • DKS

  • M

  • NVDA

  • CRM

  • AI

  • ELF

• Thursday, May 29

  • FL

  • BBY

  • KSS

  • FUTU

  • MRVL

  • COST

  • AEO

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Futures

Although the stock market is closed today for Memorial day, it hasn’t stopped global investors from buying futures. All three major indices are currently over 1% higher from Friday’s close.

U.S. stock market futures via CNN

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Consumer Cyclical / Specialty Retail

This week’s scheduled earnings features both ULTA and ELF beauty and will leave investors with additional insight within the specialty retail sector.

One divergence between two large players within the space has presented itself over the last few quarters. Although ELF continued to show steady sales and revenue growth (and has done so for 22 consecutive quarters) they stock has diverged from the performance seen in competitors such as ULTA.

ULTA (left) vs ELF (right) via TrendSpider

While ULTA is only down just over 6% YTD, ELF sits over 33% lower than where it opened 2025’s trade.

Options activity has remained rather muted for both of these names throughout May’s trading.

ELF 0.00%↑ Earnings Pivots

ELF net Γ via Vexly

• ELF pivots

  • Long >75, 80

    • Targets 85, 90

      • Sustained trade >90 can target the positive gamma exposure sitting between 95 and 100

  • No longs <75

    • Target 70

      • Any loss of 70 is bearish and can continue to see increased selling pressure

        • Targets 65, 60 (60, should it trade, is a likely support)

ULTA 0.00%↑ Earnings Pivots

ULTA net Γ via Vexly

• ULTA earnings pivots

  • PIVOT 400

    • Bullish above

      • Targets: positive gamma exposure between 420-425 strikes

        • Sustained trade >425 targets 440, 450

  • PIVOT 395

    • Bearish below

      • Target: negative gamma exposure at 360

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NVDA 0.00%↑ Earnings Pivots

All eyes will once again be on NVDA during the week ahead as it is set to report earnings on Wednesday after the market closes. To decipher NVDA’s price action during the week ahead, traders can utilize the pivots derived from market makers’ net greek positioning to derive important inflection points and potential targets above and below.